The Auckland house market remains firmly in the grip of the zombies, while the rest of New Zealand is down on sales volume but up on price… for now.
Auckland house market
The number of Auckland properties sold in August is down 4.1% on August 2018, the lowest level of monthly sales since the Christmas holidays. Sales volumes for the 12 months to August 2019 are down 0.4% on the prior 12-month period.
Sales volumes now appear to be in a sideways-sliding holding pattern when 12-month data sets are compared.
Although Auckland’s house price index (HPI) is up for the month, it’s down 1.5% on August 2018. The picture looks a little different when we look at 12-month moving average figures to iron out month-to-month fluctuations. On this basis the HPI is down 0.1% on the prior 12-month period.
This tends to indicate that prices are also in a sideways-sliding holding pattern when 12-month data sets are compared.
Auckland is already more than two years into this zombie house market. If Olly’s predictions come true, we have another 5-8 years to go. Expect the America’s Cup to provide a small, albeit temporary, blip though.
New Zealand house market
Nationally, the number of house sales in August was down 6.1% on August 2018 and the lowest level since January.
Regions with the greatest drop in August sales volumes were…
- Taranaki: Down 16.6%
- Hawke’s Bay: Down 18.4% (the lowest number of sales in nearly two years)
- Southland: Down 33.2%
Bindi Norwell, chief executive of REINZ, says the past three months had the lowest number of new listings of any consecutive three months since records began in 2007.
The house price index (HPI) measures the changing value of property in the market. Values for New Zealand excluding Auckland continue to climb. August was up 1.5% on July and up 6.8% on August 2018.
Regions with the greatest increases were…
- Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay: Up 13.2% on August 2018 (to a new record high)
- Manawatu/Wanganui: Up 13.6% on August 2018
- Southland: Up 15.2% on August 2018 (to a new record high)
In August, 9 out of 11 regions outside Auckland reached record high HPI levels. The exceptions were Manawatu/Wanganui (down 0.3% from its peak), and Canterbury (down 0.6% from its peak).